VANDERBILT
COMMODORESVAN
23-7 | Road
86
TENNESSEE
VOLUNTEERSTENN
21-9 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
COMMODORES
100%
VOLUNTEERS
0%
COMMODORES
--
VOLUNTEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Tennessee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TENN -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)
VAN By 1-7 points
12.2%
VAN By 8-14 points
4.0%
TENN By 1-7 points
24.3%
TENN By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Vanderbilt
71
VANDERBILT
Tennessee
80
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
Vanderbilt
62
VANDERBILT
Tennessee
78
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Volunteers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Volunteers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Volunteers (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Volunteers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
TENN @ VAN
68 - 75
Mar 7, 2026
VAN @ TENN
86 - 82
Feb 21, 2026
TENN @ VAN
69 - 65
Feb 15, 2025
VAN @ TENN
76 - 81
Jan 18, 2025
TENN @ VAN
75 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+25.6% more
Tennessee: 8.2
vs
Vanderbilt: 6.5
Rebounding (L5)
+15.2% more
Tennessee: 40.1
vs
Vanderbilt: 34.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Tennessee: 46.3%
vs
Vanderbilt: 44.7%
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.8%
Vanderbilt: 80.1%
vs
Tennessee: 66.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VAN Score
71.0
86
TENN Score
80.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.7 / 29.9
25.0 / 50.0
Assists
16.7 / 15.4
15.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.8 / 3.2
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 44.7
44.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
66.3 / 80.1
67.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
40.1 / 34.8
40.0 / 31.0
Steals
8.2 / 6.5
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
8.3 / 9.1
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN
Advantage
27-9-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
TENN
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 9.3
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
TENN
17-19-1
(47.2%)
Margin: 9.3
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
VAN
TENN
VAN
ML
46%
17-20
69%
25-11
64%
21-12
56%
18-14
ATS
54%
20-17
78%
28-8
64%
21-12
56%
18-14
TTL
76%
28-9
58%
21-15
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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