NORTHERN ARIZONA
LUMBERJACKSNAU
10-21 | Road
65
IDAHO STATE
BENGALSIDST
12-19 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
BENGALS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
--
BENGALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
IDAHO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Idaho State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IDST -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDST)
NAU By 1-7 points
4.8%
NAU By 8-14 points
1.1%
IDST By 1-7 points
15.3%
IDST By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Arizona
72
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Idaho State
87
IDAHO STATE
Simulated Score
Northern Arizona
70
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Idaho State
75
IDAHO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bengals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bengals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bengals (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Bengals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
NAU @ IDST
65 - 73
Feb 5, 2026
NAU @ IDST
79 - 73
Jan 10, 2026
IDST @ NAU
81 - 79
Mar 3, 2025
NAU @ IDST
82 - 79
Jan 2, 2025
IDST @ NAU
72 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+49.5% more
Idaho State: 5.0
vs
Northern Arizona: 3.3
Rebounding (L5)
+21.8% more
Idaho State: 32.8
vs
Northern Arizona: 26.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.0%
Idaho State: 76.3%
vs
Northern Arizona: 65.3%
Steals (L5)
+16.8% more
Northern Arizona: 6.4
vs
Idaho State: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NAU Score
72.0
65
IDST Score
87.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.5 / 36.8
39.0 / 20.0
Assists
11.7 / 11.6
11.0 / 18.0
Blocks
5.0 / 3.3
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
42.5 / 44.3
43.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
76.3 / 65.3
52.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
32.8 / 26.9
45.0 / 26.0
Steals
5.4 / 6.4
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 10.5
11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
IDST
Advantage
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAU
Advantage
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
IDST
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -2.3
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDST
NAU
IDST
NAU
ML
59%
19-13
62%
20-12
72%
23-9
81%
26-6
ATS
50%
16-16
62%
20-12
72%
23-9
81%
26-6
TTL
59%
19-13
66%
21-11
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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