BOISE STATE
BRONCOSBOIS
19-11 | Road
78
COLORADO STATE
RAMSCSU
20-10 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
100%
RAMS
0%
BRONCOS
--
RAMS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
106.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Colorado State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)
BOIS By 1-7 points
5.8%
BOIS By 8-14 points
1.4%
CSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
CSU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Boise State
46
BOISE STATE
Colorado State
60
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
Boise State
70
BOISE STATE
Colorado State
75
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rams
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rams
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rams (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Rams (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 106.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
BOIS @ CSU
78 - 67
Jan 16, 2026
CSU @ BOIS
73 - 79
Mar 15, 2025
BOIS @ CSU
56 - 69
Mar 7, 2025
CSU @ BOIS
83 - 73
Jan 22, 2025
BOIS @ CSU
72 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+74.1% more
Colorado State: 5.1
vs
Boise State: 2.9
Assists (L5)
+64.1% more
Colorado State: 17.7
vs
Boise State: 10.8
Turnovers (L5)
+11.5% more
Colorado State: 13.9
vs
Boise State: 12.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.9%
Colorado State: 55.4%
vs
Boise State: 47.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score
46.0
78
CSU Score
60.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.7 / 37.5
30.0 / 32.0
Assists
17.7 / 10.8
18.0 / 6.0
Blocks
1.9 / 2.0
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
55.4 / 47.5
50.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
77.7 / 81.3
64.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
30.3 / 36.9
21.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.1 / 2.9
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 12.5
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
CSU
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
CSU
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +3.8
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
BOIS
CSU
BOIS
ML
56%
19-15
50%
16-16
65%
20-11
61%
19-12
ATS
62%
21-13
50%
16-16
65%
20-11
61%
19-12
TTL
56%
19-15
56%
18-14
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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