WISCONSIN
BADGERSWIS
21-9 | Road
97
PURDUE
BOILERMAKERSPUR
23-7 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
BADGERS
100%
BOILERMAKERS
0%
BADGERS
--
BOILERMAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Purdue)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PUR -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)
WIS By 1-7 points
6.8%
WIS By 8-14 points
1.7%
PUR By 1-7 points
18.6%
PUR By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Wisconsin
69
WISCONSIN
Purdue
82
PURDUE
Simulated Score
Wisconsin
70
WISCONSIN
Purdue
78
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Boilermakers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers (-9.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Boilermakers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
WIS @ PUR
97 - 93
Jan 3, 2026
PUR @ WIS
89 - 73
Feb 15, 2025
WIS @ PUR
94 - 84
Mar 16, 2024
WIS @ PUR
76 - 75
Mar 10, 2024
WIS @ PUR
70 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+46.3% more
Purdue: 9.5
vs
Wisconsin: 6.5
Assists (L5)
+23.2% more
Purdue: 19.3
vs
Wisconsin: 15.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.4%
Purdue: 49.8%
vs
Wisconsin: 45.4%
Blocks (L5)
+46.2% more
Wisconsin: 2.6
vs
Purdue: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WIS Score
69.0
97
PUR Score
82.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.5 / 39.8
44.0 / 53.0
Assists
19.3 / 15.6
20.0 / 19.0
Blocks
1.4 / 2.6
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
49.8 / 45.4
51.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
74.9 / 85.0
74.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
30.2 / 35.9
34.0 / 22.0
Steals
4.2 / 6.2
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 6.5
7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
PUR
Advantage
30-9-0
(76.9%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
PUR
17-22-0
(43.6%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
22-13-0
O: 62.9% / U: 37.1%
Total +/-: +3.5
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
WIS
PUR
WIS
ML
67%
26-13
60%
21-14
66%
25-13
69%
24-11
ATS
64%
25-14
51%
18-17
66%
25-13
69%
24-11
TTL
51%
20-19
57%
20-15
100%
38-0
100%
35-0
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