Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blue Raiders @ Bears MTSU @ MOST

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

16-14  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 3:00 PM ET
Great Southern Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

14-16  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE RAIDERS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
BLUE RAIDERS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Blue RaidersMTSU (-3.5) 0 BearsMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Raiders Cover

46.0%

Bears Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MOST +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

MTSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

MTSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

MOST By 1-7 points

24.3%

MOST By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
74
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
73
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
65
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
69
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Raiders Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 MTSU @ MOST 75 - 63
Jan 17, 2026 MOST @ MTSU 87 - 90
Dec 5, 2023 MOST @ MTSU 73 - 77
Nov 19, 2022 MTSU @ MOST 51 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.8% more
Middle Tennessee: 4.2 vs Missouri State: 2.5
Turnovers (L5) +27.7% more
Middle Tennessee: 13.2 vs Missouri State: 9.5
Rebounding (L5) +8.2% more
Middle Tennessee: 36.6 vs Missouri State: 33.6
Free Throw % (L5) +6.4%
Middle Tennessee: 78.3% vs Missouri State: 71.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score 74.0 75
MOST Score 73.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.5 / 32.5 22.0 / 43.0
Assists 15.9 / 13.2 16.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.5 / 4.2 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 44.8 42.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 71.9 / 78.3 71.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 36.6 30.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.4 / 5.6 2.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 13.2 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
MTSU
MOST
MTSU
ML
65% 22-12
56% 18-14
62% 21-13
69% 22-10
ATS
68% 23-11
75% 24-8
62% 21-13
69% 22-10
TTL
44% 15-19
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
courant 1 day, 6 hours ago
Jason Kidd in Advanced Talks to Join ESPN's NBA Countdown as Ana…
yahoo 2 days, 20 hours ago
Kansas Jayhawks Set Program Record with 706 Yards, Blank Middle …
si 5 days, 1 hour ago
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
si 5 days, 12 hours ago
Northwestern Opens Ryan Field with Record-Breaking Debut Against…
si 6 days, 1 hour ago