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ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

16-14  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 2:00 PM ET
Hilton Coliseum
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

24-6  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
SUN DEVILS
100%
📊
CYCLONES
0%
SUN DEVILS --
CYCLONES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Iowa State)
Sun DevilsASU (-3.5) 0 CyclonesISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sun Devils Cover

13.6%

Cyclones Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ISU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

ASU By 1-7 points

9.3%

ASU By 8-14 points

2.7%

ISU By 1-7 points

21.6%

ISU By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
70
ARIZONA STATE
81
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
65
ARIZONA STATE
72
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cyclones Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cyclones Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cyclones (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Cyclones (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 ASU @ ISU 42 - 91
Mar 7, 2026 ASU @ ISU 65 - 86
Jan 25, 2025 ISU @ ASU 76 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.0% more
Iowa State: 8.2 vs Arizona State: 6.4
Blocks (L5) +60.5% more
Arizona State: 6.0 vs Iowa State: 2.4
Turnovers (L5) +13.9% more
Arizona State: 10.7 vs Iowa State: 9.2
Rebounding (L5) +12.0% more
Arizona State: 35.9 vs Iowa State: 31.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 70.0 65
ISU Score 81.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.0 / 35.7 38.0 / 30.0
Assists 13.2 / 13.8 18.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.4 / 6.0 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 39.0 / 41.2 44.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 74.3 / 78.9 77.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 31.6 / 35.9 32.0 / 29.0
Steals 8.2 / 6.4 16.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 10.7 9.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
ISU Advantage
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
ISU
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
ASU
ISU
ASU
ML
57% 21-16
52% 17-16
76% 26-8
68% 21-10
ATS
62% 23-14
52% 17-16
76% 26-8
68% 21-10
TTL
54% 20-17
64% 21-12
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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