Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hokies @ Cavaliers VT @ UVA

VIRGINIA TECH

HOKIESVT

19-11  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 12:00 PM ET
John Paul Jones Arena
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

CAVALIERSUVA

26-4  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
HOKIES
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
HOKIES --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Virginia)
HokiesVT (-3.5) 0 CavaliersUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hokies Cover

15.9%

Cavaliers Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

VT By 1-7 points

10.7%

VT By 8-14 points

3.3%

UVA By 1-7 points

23.0%

UVA By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
72
VIRGINIA TECH
82
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
62
VIRGINIA TECH
65
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 VT @ UVA 72 - 76
Dec 31, 2025 UVA @ VT 85 - 95
Feb 15, 2025 UVA @ VT 73 - 70
Feb 1, 2025 VT @ UVA 75 - 74
Feb 19, 2024 UVA @ VT 41 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +246.2% more
Virginia: 7.7 vs Virginia Tech: 2.2
Steals (L5) +35.7% more
Virginia: 5.8 vs Virginia Tech: 4.3
Rebounding (L5) +26.3% more
Virginia: 37.8 vs Virginia Tech: 29.9
Assists (L5) +13.0% more
Virginia: 15.5 vs Virginia Tech: 13.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VT Score 72.0 72
UVA Score 82.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 42.0 36.0 / 25.0
Assists 15.5 / 13.7 19.0 / 16.0
Blocks 7.7 / 2.2 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 46.8 45.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 77.0 / 81.2 88.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 29.9 36.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.8 / 4.3 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 10.1 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VT
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
UVA Advantage
30-6-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VT Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
UVA
17-17-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
VT
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +3.6
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
VT
UVA
VT
ML
67% 24-12
53% 17-15
72% 26-10
72% 23-9
ATS
75% 27-9
59% 19-13
72% 26-10
72% 23-9
TTL
53% 19-17
69% 22-10
100% 36-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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