Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pilots @ Cougars PORT @ WSU

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

14-18  |  Road

74
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 9:00 PM ET
Orleans Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON STATE

COUGARSWSU

12-19  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
PILOTS
0%
📊
COUGARS
100%
PILOTS --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PilotsPORT (-3.5) 0 CougarsWSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pilots Cover

34.5%

Cougars Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WSU +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSU)

PORT By 1-7 points

27.4%

PORT By 8-14 points

21.6%

WSU By 1-7 points

20.1%

WSU By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
75
PORTLAND
71
WASHINGTON STATE
Simulated Score
65
PORTLAND
78
WASHINGTON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pilots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cougars (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 PORT @ WSU 74 - 68
Jan 31, 2026 PORT @ WSU 74 - 104
Dec 28, 2025 WSU @ PORT 67 - 62
Jan 18, 2025 PORT @ WSU 70 - 92
Dec 28, 2024 WSU @ PORT 89 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +14.0% more
Portland: 6.5 vs Washington State: 5.6
Assists (L5) +13.5% more
Portland: 17.8 vs Washington State: 15.4
Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Portland: 46.7% vs Washington State: 44.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +6.7%
Washington State: 78.8% vs Portland: 72.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PORT Score 75.0 74
WSU Score 71.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 33.8 29.0 / 27.0
Assists 15.4 / 17.8 21.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.9 0.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 46.7 38.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 72.1 82.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 33.4 34.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.6 / 6.5 6.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 13.3 7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PORT Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
WSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PORT
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
WSU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
WSU
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSU
PORT
WSU
PORT
ML
78% 25-7
48% 16-17
69% 20-9
82% 27-6
ATS
78% 25-7
67% 22-11
69% 20-9
82% 28-6
TTL
62% 20-12
55% 18-15
100% 29-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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