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FAIRFIELD

STAGSFAIR

20-12  |  Road

74
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 8:30 PM ET
Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall
View Odds Details →

SAINT PETER'S

PEACOCKSSPU

17-11  |  Home

55
AI Model Win Probability
STAGS
0%
📊
PEACOCKS
100%
STAGS --
PEACOCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Fairfield)
StagsFAIR (-3.5) 0 PeacocksSPU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stags Cover

97.1%

Peacocks Cover

2.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FAIR -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)

FAIR By 1-7 points

9.3%

FAIR By 8-14 points

20.1%

SPU By 1-7 points

2.2%

SPU By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
93
FAIRFIELD
74
SAINT PETER'S
Simulated Score
62
FAIRFIELD
66
SAINT PETER'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Stags Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Peacocks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Stags (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Peacocks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o137.5 Loss
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 FAIR @ SPU 74 - 55
Feb 15, 2026 FAIR @ SPU 74 - 83
Dec 29, 2025 SPU @ FAIR 70 - 66
Feb 14, 2025 FAIR @ SPU 52 - 65
Mar 16, 2024 SPU @ FAIR 68 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +69.0% more
Saint Peter's: 4.8 vs Fairfield: 2.8
Assists (L5) +22.5% more
Saint Peter's: 13.9 vs Fairfield: 11.3
Turnovers (L5) +14.0% more
Saint Peter's: 13.6 vs Fairfield: 12.0
Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
Saint Peter's: 45.3% vs Fairfield: 39.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAIR Score 93.0 74
SPU Score 74.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 32.2 32.0 / 37.0
Assists 13.9 / 11.3 13.0 / 16.0
Blocks 4.8 / 2.8 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 39.9 36.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 67.6 / 68.1 50.0 / 59.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 37.6 36.0 / 45.0
Steals 7.3 / 7.0 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 12.0 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAIR Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
SPU
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAIR
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
SPU Advantage
16-11-1 (59.3%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -0.2
SPU
10-18-0
O: 35.7% / U: 64.3% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SPU
FAIR
SPU
FAIR
ML
64% 18-10
55% 18-15
71% 20-8
61% 20-13
ATS
71% 20-8
48% 16-17
71% 20-8
61% 20-13
TTL
61% 17-11
48% 16-17
100% 28-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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