SACRED HEART
PIONEERSSHU
14-18 | Road
48
MERRIMACK
WARRIORSMRMK
21-10 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
0%
WARRIORS
100%
PIONEERS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MERRIMACK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MRMK +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRMK)
SHU By 1-7 points
26.2%
SHU By 8-14 points
16.9%
MRMK By 1-7 points
24.3%
MRMK By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacred Heart
71
SACRED HEART
Merrimack
70
MERRIMACK
Simulated Score
Sacred Heart
68
SACRED HEART
Merrimack
72
MERRIMACK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pioneers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warriors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Warriors (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Warriors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
SHU @ MRMK
48 - 70
Feb 1, 2026
SHU @ MRMK
58 - 75
Dec 29, 2025
MRMK @ SHU
80 - 72
Mar 12, 2025
SHU @ MRMK
62 - 66
Feb 21, 2025
SHU @ MRMK
60 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+26.5% more
Sacred Heart: 37.0
vs
Merrimack: 27.2
Assists (L5)
+13.2% more
Sacred Heart: 15.5
vs
Merrimack: 13.4
Turnovers (L5)
+8.3% more
Sacred Heart: 9.4
vs
Merrimack: 8.6
Steals (L5)
+83.3% more
Merrimack: 7.6
vs
Sacred Heart: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SHU Score
71.0
48
MRMK Score
70.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 34.9
38.0 / 27.0
Assists
13.4 / 15.5
20.0 / 16.0
Blocks
4.8 / 5.1
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 44.1
44.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
86.1 / 77.9
71.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
27.2 / 37.0
36.0 / 28.0
Steals
7.6 / 4.1
8.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
8.6 / 9.4
9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHU
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -1.3
MRMK
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -1.3
MRMK
Advantage
19-14-1
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SHU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: +1.5
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRMK
SHU
MRMK
SHU
ML
47%
16-18
61%
20-13
65%
22-12
73%
24-9
ATS
53%
18-16
76%
25-8
65%
22-12
73%
24-9
TTL
62%
21-13
58%
19-14
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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