Home / NBA Projections NBA / Knicks @ Nuggets NY @ DEN

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

40-23  |  Road

142
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

39-24  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
KNICKS
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
KNICKS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
KnicksNY (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knicks Cover

57.9%

Nuggets Cover

42.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)

NY By 1-7 points

26.8%

NY By 8-14 points

18.6%

DEN By 1-7 points

23.0%

DEN By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
120
NEW YORK
118
DENVER
Simulated Score
107
NEW YORK
110
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knicks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knicks (+1) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o230.0 Win
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Sim u230.0 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 NY @ DEN 142 - 103
Feb 4, 2026 DEN @ NY 127 - 134
Jan 29, 2025 DEN @ NY 112 - 122
Nov 25, 2024 NY @ DEN 145 - 118
Mar 21, 2024 NY @ DEN 100 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +42.0% more
New York: 8.2 vs Denver: 4.7
Blocks (L5) +33.4% more
New York: 3.9 vs Denver: 2.6
Free Throw % (L5) +10.4%
Denver: 83.1% vs New York: 72.7%
Turnovers (L5) +8.8% more
Denver: 15.9 vs New York: 14.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NY Score 120.0 142
DEN Score 118.0 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 33.7 20.0 / 47.0
Assists 26.2 / 27.2 30.0 / 44.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.9 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.9 / 47.3 45.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 83.1 / 72.7 70.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 43.5 / 46.4 31.0 / 50.0
Steals 4.7 / 8.2 6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 15.9 / 14.6 15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
DEN
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
NY
DEN
NY
ML
54% 57-48
61% 114-72
55% 47-39
56% 57-45
ATS
63% 65-38-2
67% 124-62
55% 47-39
56% 57-45
TTL
54% 56-48-1
72% 133-53
100% 86-0
100% 102-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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