NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
20-44 | Road
116
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
35-27 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
SUNS
0%
PELICANS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
NO By 1-7 points
21.6%
NO By 8-14 points
10.7%
PHX By 1-7 points
27.2%
PHX By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
119
NEW ORLEANS
Phoenix
122
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
New Orleans
110
NEW ORLEANS
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (+4)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o228.0
Win
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim
u228.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
NO @ PHX
116 - 118
Dec 27, 2025
PHX @ NO
123 - 114
Dec 26, 2025
PHX @ NO
115 - 108
Nov 10, 2025
NO @ PHX
98 - 121
Feb 28, 2025
NO @ PHX
108 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+51.6% more
New Orleans: 7.4
vs
Phoenix: 3.6
Assists (L5)
+12.4% more
New Orleans: 27.4
vs
Phoenix: 24.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.0%
New Orleans: 83.7%
vs
Phoenix: 72.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.6%
New Orleans: 46.9%
vs
Phoenix: 41.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
119.0
116
PHX Score
122.0
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 33.5
34.0 / 36.0
Assists
24.0 / 27.4
27.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.6 / 7.4
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.3 / 46.9
44.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
72.7 / 83.7
69.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
46.6 / 47.0
41.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.6 / 8.4
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 15.8
15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
NO
PHX
NO
ML
57%
60-45
62%
98-61
51%
45-43
58%
48-35
ATS
58%
59-43-3
68%
107-51-1
51%
45-43
58%
48-35
TTL
59%
61-42-2
75%
119-40
100%
88-0
100%
83-0
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