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PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

30-33  |  Road

99
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Toyota Center (Houston)
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

38-23  |  Home

106
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Houston)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

18.4%

Rockets Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

POR By 1-7 points

12.2%

POR By 8-14 points

4.0%

HOU By 1-7 points

24.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
107
PORTLAND
116
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
108
PORTLAND
115
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (-6) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o221.0 Loss
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim u221.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 POR @ HOU 99 - 106
Jan 9, 2026 HOU @ POR 105 - 111
Jan 7, 2026 HOU @ POR 102 - 103
Nov 14, 2025 POR @ HOU 116 - 140
Jan 18, 2025 HOU @ POR 125 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +10.5%
Houston: 77.9% vs Portland: 67.4%
Rebounding (L5) +9.3% more
Houston: 49.5 vs Portland: 45.3
Steals (L5) +8.5% more
Houston: 9.1 vs Portland: 8.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
Houston: 37.2% vs Portland: 32.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 107.0 99
HOU Score 116.0 106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.2 / 32.0 26.0 / 31.0
Assists 24.9 / 25.8 23.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.4 / 8.1 9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 45.5 54.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 77.9 / 67.4 73.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 49.5 / 45.3 44.0 / 43.0
Steals 9.1 / 8.3 9.0 / 17.0
Turnovers 17.1 / 16.9 22.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
POR
HOU
POR
ML
61% 69-44
53% 56-49
59% 51-35
55% 49-40
ATS
62% 70-43
62% 65-39-1
59% 51-35
55% 49-40
TTL
51% 58-55
56% 58-46-1
100% 86-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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