SOUTHERN MISS
GOLDEN EAGLESUSM
17-15 | Road
81
TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
19-12 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
BOBCATS
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Texas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXST -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)
USM By 1-7 points
18.6%
USM By 8-14 points
8.0%
TXST By 1-7 points
27.2%
TXST By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern Miss
72
SOUTHERN MISS
Texas State
77
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
Southern Miss
70
SOUTHERN MISS
Texas State
72
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
USM @ TXST
81 - 77
Jan 17, 2026
USM @ TXST
67 - 74
Jan 8, 2026
TXST @ USM
70 - 80
Jan 18, 2025
USM @ TXST
82 - 85
Jan 11, 2025
TXST @ USM
88 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+24.5% more
Southern Miss: 4.0
vs
Texas State: 3.0
Rebounding (L5)
+17.9% more
Southern Miss: 38.3
vs
Texas State: 31.4
Steals (L5)
+14.2% more
Southern Miss: 7.3
vs
Texas State: 6.3
Turnovers (L5)
+10.1% more
Southern Miss: 12.2
vs
Texas State: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USM Score
72.0
81
TXST Score
77.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 36.0
33.0 / 38.0
Assists
12.0 / 12.4
11.0 / 7.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.0
0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 46.3
49.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
71.9 / 74.4
85.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
31.4 / 38.3
32.0 / 26.0
Steals
6.3 / 7.3
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 12.2
12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
TXST
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
TXST
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +3.2
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
USM
TXST
USM
ML
42%
13-18
53%
18-16
83%
25-5
73%
24-9
ATS
48%
15-16
59%
20-14
84%
26-5
74%
25-9
TTL
65%
20-11
68%
23-11
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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