MIAMI
HEATMIA
34-29 | Road
128
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
32-31 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
HORNETS
100%
HEAT
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CHA +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
MIA By 1-7 points
26.8%
MIA By 8-14 points
24.3%
CHA By 1-7 points
16.9%
CHA By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
118
MIAMI
Charlotte
112
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Miami
98
MIAMI
Charlotte
112
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o228.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim
u228.5
Win
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 14, 2026
MIA @ CHA
126 - 127
Mar 17, 2026
MIA @ CHA
106 - 136
Mar 6, 2026
MIA @ CHA
128 - 120
Nov 7, 2025
CHA @ MIA
108 - 126
Oct 28, 2025
CHA @ MIA
117 - 144
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+29.4% more
Miami: 6.2
vs
Charlotte: 4.4
Turnovers (L5)
+11.0% more
Miami: 13.6
vs
Charlotte: 12.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.1%
Miami: 82.1%
vs
Charlotte: 77.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Miami: 49.7%
vs
Charlotte: 46.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
118.0
128
CHA Score
112.0
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.5 / 35.2
37.0 / 47.0
Assists
28.2 / 27.8
24.0 / 31.0
Blocks
4.4 / 6.2
9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 49.7
43.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
77.0 / 82.1
95.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
47.3 / 47.2
48.0 / 44.0
Steals
10.2 / 10.1
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 13.6
13.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
MIA
CHA
MIA
ML
61%
60-39
48%
46-50
48%
40-44
59%
48-34
ATS
60%
59-40
51%
49-47
48%
40-44
59%
48-34
TTL
58%
57-42
59%
57-39
100%
84-0
100%
82-0
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