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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

21-41  |  Road

100
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 7:00 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

41-21  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
CELTICS
0%
MAVERICKS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Boston)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

21.2%

Celtics Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

DAL By 1-7 points

13.7%

DAL By 8-14 points

4.8%

BOS By 1-7 points

25.3%

BOS By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
110
DALLAS
118
BOSTON
Simulated Score
112
DALLAS
115
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o225.0 Loss
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim u225.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 DAL @ BOS 100 - 120
Feb 3, 2026 BOS @ DAL 110 - 100
Feb 6, 2025 DAL @ BOS 127 - 120
Jan 25, 2025 BOS @ DAL 122 - 107
Jun 17, 2024 DAL @ BOS 88 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +12.8% more
Boston: 49.8 vs Dallas: 44.2
Free Throw % (L5) +9.0%
Boston: 83.3% vs Dallas: 74.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Boston: 35.8% vs Dallas: 32.2%
Steals (L5) +28.2% more
Dallas: 6.1 vs Boston: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 110.0 100
BOS Score 118.0 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 32.2 33.0 / 40.0
Assists 25.4 / 23.7 29.0 / 23.0
Blocks 5.4 / 5.1 10.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 43.9 47.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 83.3 / 74.3 67.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 49.8 / 44.2 58.0 / 45.0
Steals 4.4 / 6.1 6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 15.2 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
DAL
BOS
DAL
ML
57% 61-46
62% 63-39
53% 47-41
54% 44-37
ATS
59% 61-43-3
67% 68-34
53% 47-41
54% 44-37
TTL
56% 60-47
59% 60-41-1
100% 88-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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