Home / NHL Projections NHL / Wild @ Golden Knights MIN @ VGK

MINNESOTA

WILDMIN

36-16-10  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 10:00 PM ET
T-Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

29-19-14  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Filip Gustavsson
GOALTENDER

Filip Gustavsson

#32 | Goaltender
@
Shea Theodore
GOALTENDER

Shea Theodore

#27 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Filip Gustavsson None-None 2.00 0.935 --
Shea Theodore None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 GAA --
0.935 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
WILD
100%
📊
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
0%
WILD --
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Vegas)
WildMIN (-3.5) 0 Golden KnightsVGK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wild Cover

30.9%

Golden Knights Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VGK -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)

MIN By 1 goal

12.1%

MIN By 2-3 goals

9.3%

VGK By 1 goal

19.7%

VGK By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
MINNESOTA
4
VEGAS
Simulated Score
2
MINNESOTA
3
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Knights Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Knights Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Knights (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Golden Knights (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 MIN @ VGK 4 - 2
Dec 29, 2025 MIN @ VGK 5 - 2
Nov 16, 2025 VGK @ MIN 2 - 3
May 1, 2025 VGK @ MIN 3 - 2
Apr 29, 2025 MIN @ VGK 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +16.8% more
Vegas: 22.4 vs Minnesota: 19.2
Faceoff % (L5) +8.7%
Vegas: 53.3% vs Minnesota: 44.7%
Power Play % (L5) +20.9%
Minnesota: 43.5% vs Vegas: 22.6%
Shots on Goal (L5) +15.7% more
Minnesota: 32.0 vs Vegas: 26.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 3.0 4
VGK Score 4.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
65%MONEY35%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
MIN
VGK
MIN
ML
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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