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COLORADO

AVALANCHECOL

41-10-9  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

38-14-9  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Scott Wedgewood
GOALTENDER

Scott Wedgewood

#41 | Goaltender
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Scott Wedgewood None-None 0.00 1.000 --
Jake Oettinger None-None 3.72 0.862 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
0.00 Ldr GAA 3.72
1.000 Ldr Save % 0.862
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
AVALANCHE
100%
📊
STARS
0%
AVALANCHE --
STARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Dallas)
AvalancheCOL (-3.5) 0 StarsDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Avalanche Cover

15.9%

Stars Cover

84.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

COL By 1 goal

6.6%

COL By 2-3 goals

3.7%

DAL By 1 goal

17.5%

DAL By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1
COLORADO
3
DALLAS
Simulated Score
3
COLORADO
4
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Stars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stars Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stars (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Stars (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 4, 2026 COL @ DAL 2 - 0
Mar 18, 2026 DAL @ COL 2 - 1
Mar 6, 2026 COL @ DAL 5 - 4
Oct 11, 2025 DAL @ COL 5 - 4
Oct 4, 2025 COL @ DAL 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +77.8% more
Dallas: 17.4 vs Colorado: 9.8
Power Play % (L5) +31.5%
Dallas: 32.0% vs Colorado: 0.6%
Hits (L5) +23.1% more
Dallas: 19.4 vs Colorado: 15.8
Takeaways (L5) +12.2% more
Colorado: 4.4 vs Dallas: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 1.0 5
DAL Score 3.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
90%MONEY10%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
COL
DAL
COL
ML
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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