UNLV
REBELSUNLV
16-14 | Road
86
SAN DIEGO STATE
AZTECSSDSU
19-10 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
100%
AZTECS
0%
REBELS
--
AZTECS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Diego State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)
UNLV By 1-7 points
21.6%
UNLV By 8-14 points
10.7%
SDSU By 1-7 points
27.2%
SDSU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
UNLV
73
UNLV
San Diego State
76
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
UNLV
68
UNLV
San Diego State
71
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aztecs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aztecs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aztecs (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Aztecs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
UNLV @ SDSU
86 - 89
Jan 24, 2026
SDSU @ UNLV
82 - 71
Mar 4, 2025
SDSU @ UNLV
67 - 74
Jan 18, 2025
UNLV @ SDSU
76 - 68
Mar 14, 2024
SDSU @ UNLV
74 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.9%
San Diego State: 75.9%
vs
UNLV: 72.1%
Blocks (L5)
+42.1% more
UNLV: 5.6
vs
San Diego State: 3.3
Steals (L5)
+26.9% more
UNLV: 6.2
vs
San Diego State: 4.5
Turnovers (L5)
+18.8% more
UNLV: 11.1
vs
San Diego State: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score
73.0
86
SDSU Score
76.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.7 / 41.4
40.0 / 43.0
Assists
13.9 / 16.4
16.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.3 / 5.6
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 52.0
55.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
75.9 / 72.1
68.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
28.6 / 34.1
33.0 / 30.0
Steals
4.5 / 6.2
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.0 / 11.1
12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
SDSU
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
SDSU
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +3.3
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
UNLV
SDSU
UNLV
ML
62%
20-12
50%
17-17
72%
23-9
59%
20-14
ATS
69%
22-10
65%
22-12
72%
23-9
59%
20-14
TTL
75%
24-8
62%
21-13
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
Contextual Game News
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