BUFFALO
BULLSBUF
17-13 | Road
78
TOLEDO
ROCKETSTOL
16-14 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
0%
ROCKETS
100%
BULLS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOL +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)
BUF By 1-7 points
27.2%
BUF By 8-14 points
23.0%
TOL By 1-7 points
18.6%
TOL By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
87
BUFFALO
Toledo
82
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
Buffalo
70
BUFFALO
Toledo
78
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulls
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o155.5
Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
BUF @ TOL
78 - 98
Mar 1, 2025
TOL @ BUF
74 - 87
Feb 4, 2025
BUF @ TOL
74 - 87
Mar 2, 2024
TOL @ BUF
85 - 79
Jan 16, 2024
BUF @ TOL
66 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+38.6% more
Buffalo: 4.1
vs
Toledo: 2.5
Turnovers (L5)
+19.3% more
Buffalo: 10.2
vs
Toledo: 8.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Buffalo: 36.7%
vs
Toledo: 33.9%
Rebounding (L5)
+23.8% more
Toledo: 36.4
vs
Buffalo: 29.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
87.0
78
TOL Score
82.0
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.9 / 36.7
50.0 / 42.0
Assists
14.5 / 14.0
26.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.5 / 4.1
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 45.0
60.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
86.0 / 74.2
67.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
36.4 / 29.4
27.0 / 30.0
Steals
8.5 / 7.4
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.3 / 10.2
6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
TOL
Advantage
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
TOL
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.6
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
BUF
TOL
BUF
ML
48%
16-17
45%
14-17
61%
20-13
45%
14-17
ATS
48%
16-17
55%
17-14
61%
20-13
45%
14-17
TTL
64%
21-12
48%
15-16
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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