CENTRAL MICHIGAN
CHIPPEWASCMU
10-20 | Road
69
BALL STATE
CARDINALSBALL
11-19 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
CHIPPEWAS
0%
CARDINALS
100%
CHIPPEWAS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Central Michigan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CMU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)
CMU By 1-7 points
27.2%
CMU By 8-14 points
23.0%
BALL By 1-7 points
18.6%
BALL By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Central Michigan
75
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Ball State
70
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
Central Michigan
70
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Ball State
73
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Chippewas
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Chippewas (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o134.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u134.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
CMU @ BALL
69 - 85
Jan 20, 2026
BALL @ CMU
68 - 67
Mar 4, 2025
CMU @ BALL
69 - 67
Jan 21, 2025
BALL @ CMU
82 - 80
Feb 27, 2024
BALL @ CMU
79 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+33.8% more
Central Michigan: 13.8
vs
Ball State: 9.2
Blocks (L5)
+31.5% more
Central Michigan: 3.5
vs
Ball State: 2.4
Assists (L5)
+9.8% more
Central Michigan: 15.4
vs
Ball State: 13.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Central Michigan: 40.5%
vs
Ball State: 35.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CMU Score
75.0
69
BALL Score
70.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 40.5
39.0 / 25.0
Assists
13.9 / 15.4
23.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.4 / 3.5
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 47.0
58.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
69.1 / 70.3
63.0 / 53.0
Rebounding
36.3 / 30.4
28.0 / 29.0
Steals
7.5 / 7.3
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
9.2 / 13.8
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CMU
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -3.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
BALL
Advantage
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CMU
Advantage
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: -3.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
BALL
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CMU
13-16-0
O: 44.8% / U: 55.2%
Total +/-: +0.4
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -6.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
CMU
BALL
CMU
ML
43%
13-17
57%
17-13
62%
18-11
70%
21-9
ATS
67%
20-10
67%
20-10
62%
18-11
70%
21-9
TTL
50%
15-15
67%
20-10
100%
29-0
100%
30-0
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