VCU
RAMSVCU
23-7 | Road
68
DAYTON
FLYERSDAY
21-9 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
0%
FLYERS
100%
RAMS
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
VCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (VCU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VCU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VCU)
VCU By 1-7 points
26.2%
VCU By 8-14 points
25.3%
DAY By 1-7 points
15.3%
DAY By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
VCU
66
VCU
Dayton
59
DAYTON
Simulated Score
VCU
68
VCU
Dayton
72
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rams
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rams (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
DAY @ VCU
62 - 70
Mar 6, 2026
VCU @ DAY
68 - 62
Feb 6, 2026
DAY @ VCU
73 - 99
Mar 7, 2025
DAY @ VCU
79 - 76
Feb 7, 2025
VCU @ DAY
73 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+18.1% more
VCU: 37.5
vs
Dayton: 30.7
Turnovers (L5)
+44.0% more
Dayton: 13.9
vs
VCU: 9.6
Assists (L5)
+29.4% more
Dayton: 15.3
vs
VCU: 11.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.2%
Dayton: 78.6%
vs
VCU: 72.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VCU Score
66.0
68
DAY Score
59.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.5 / 35.6
18.0 / 38.0
Assists
15.3 / 11.9
11.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.4 / 3.4
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 44.3
45.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
78.6 / 72.4
53.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
30.7 / 37.5
33.0 / 30.0
Steals
6.7 / 6.5
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 9.6
9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VCU
Advantage
28-8-0
(77.8%)
Margin: 9.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
DAY
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VCU
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
DAY
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
VCU
16-20-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9%
Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
VCU
DAY
VCU
ML
65%
24-13
72%
26-10
64%
23-13
67%
22-11
ATS
68%
25-12
81%
29-7
64%
23-13
67%
22-11
TTL
57%
21-16
58%
21-15
100%
36-0
100%
33-0
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