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OMAHA

MAVERICKSOMA

15-16  |  Road

76
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Denny Sanford Premier Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH DAKOTA

COYOTESSDAK

16-15  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
COYOTES
100%
MAVERICKS --
COYOTES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
OMAHA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Omaha)
MavericksOMA (-3.5) 0 CoyotesSDAK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

75.8%

Coyotes Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OMA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OMA)

OMA By 1-7 points

26.2%

OMA By 8-14 points

25.3%

SDAK By 1-7 points

15.3%

SDAK By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
76
OMAHA
69
SOUTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
69
OMAHA
76
SOUTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Coyotes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Coyotes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 OMA @ SDAK 76 - 62
Feb 25, 2026 OMA @ SDAK 72 - 89
Jan 21, 2026 SDAK @ OMA 68 - 64
Mar 8, 2025 SDAK @ OMA 75 - 100
Feb 22, 2025 SDAK @ OMA 85 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +49.1% more
Omaha: 4.4 vs South Dakota: 2.2
Rebounding (L5) +10.7% more
Omaha: 33.9 vs South Dakota: 30.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.2%
Omaha: 35.1% vs South Dakota: 27.8%
Assists (L5) +18.4% more
South Dakota: 12.7 vs Omaha: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OMA Score 76.0 76
SDAK Score 69.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.8 / 35.1 32.0 / 27.0
Assists 12.7 / 10.7 7.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.2 / 4.4 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 43.0 31.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 74.2 / 73.8 59.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 30.3 / 33.9 41.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.0 / 4.5 2.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 9.2 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OMA
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
SDAK Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OMA
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
SDAK Advantage
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
SDAK
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDAK
OMA
SDAK
OMA
ML
70% 21-9
79% 26-7
63% 19-11
67% 22-11
ATS
70% 21-9
76% 25-8
63% 19-11
67% 22-11
TTL
67% 20-10
73% 24-9
100% 30-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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