BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
17-13 | Road
77
EASTERN MICHIGAN
EAGLESEMU
10-20 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
0%
EAGLES
100%
FALCONS
--
EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around EMU +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EMU)
BGSU By 1-7 points
27.2%
BGSU By 8-14 points
23.0%
EMU By 1-7 points
18.6%
EMU By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Bowling Green
77
BOWLING GREEN
Eastern Michigan
72
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
Bowling Green
68
BOWLING GREEN
Eastern Michigan
72
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Falcons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Eagles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Eagles (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Eagles (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
BGSU @ EMU
77 - 69
Jan 17, 2026
EMU @ BGSU
79 - 85
Feb 25, 2025
BGSU @ EMU
65 - 60
Jan 18, 2025
EMU @ BGSU
68 - 62
Feb 17, 2024
BGSU @ EMU
60 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+28.7% more
Bowling Green: 6.2
vs
Eastern Michigan: 4.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.0%
Bowling Green: 36.7%
vs
Eastern Michigan: 27.8%
Blocks (L5)
+25.5% more
Eastern Michigan: 4.6
vs
Bowling Green: 3.7
Turnovers (L5)
+19.8% more
Eastern Michigan: 11.9
vs
Bowling Green: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score
77.0
77
EMU Score
72.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.8 / 36.7
19.0 / 37.0
Assists
12.2 / 12.6
8.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.6 / 3.7
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 44.9
44.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
75.9 / 75.5
74.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
35.1 / 36.2
36.0 / 39.0
Steals
4.4 / 6.2
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 10.0
10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
EMU
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
EMU
Advantage
20-10-0
(66.7%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
EMU
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EMU
BGSU
EMU
BGSU
ML
65%
20-11
66%
21-11
70%
21-9
56%
18-14
ATS
65%
20-11
72%
23-9
70%
21-9
56%
18-14
TTL
71%
22-9
53%
17-15
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
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