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FLORIDA GULF COAST

EAGLESFGCU

15-17  |  Road

77
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 2:30 PM ET
VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena
View Odds Details →

LIPSCOMB

BISONSLIP

19-12  |  Home

53
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
BISONS
0%
EAGLES --
BISONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LIPSCOMB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Lipscomb)
EaglesFGCU (-3.5) 0 BisonsLIP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

46.0%

Bisons Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LIP -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIP)

FGCU By 1-7 points

24.3%

FGCU By 8-14 points

13.7%

LIP By 1-7 points

26.2%

LIP By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
69
FLORIDA GULF COAST
70
LIPSCOMB
Simulated Score
73
FLORIDA GULF COAST
78
LIPSCOMB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bisons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bisons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bisons (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Bisons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 FGCU @ LIP 77 - 53
Jan 23, 2026 FGCU @ LIP 71 - 86
Jan 10, 2026 LIP @ FGCU 84 - 77
Feb 15, 2025 FGCU @ LIP 68 - 82
Jan 25, 2024 LIP @ FGCU 98 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +35.2% more
Lipscomb: 18.1 vs Florida Gulf Coast: 13.4
Turnovers (L5) +13.3% more
Lipscomb: 8.9 vs Florida Gulf Coast: 7.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
Lipscomb: 32.5% vs Florida Gulf Coast: 25.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Lipscomb: 47.1% vs Florida Gulf Coast: 44.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FGCU Score 69.0 77
LIP Score 70.0 53
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 25.9 28.0 / 32.0
Assists 18.1 / 13.4 11.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.8 / 4.0 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 44.5 38.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 65.7 / 70.3 58.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 33.7 21.0 / 42.0
Steals 5.0 / 7.3 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 7.8 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FGCU
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
LIP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FGCU
9-22-1 (29.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
LIP Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
FGCU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.3
LIP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIP
FGCU
LIP
FGCU
ML
71% 22-9
58% 19-14
66% 19-10
67% 22-11
ATS
71% 22-9
61% 20-13
66% 19-10
67% 22-11
TTL
58% 18-13
61% 20-13
100% 29-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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