Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pioneers @ Fighting Hawks DEN @ UND

DENVER

PIONEERSDEN

15-16  |  Road

67
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 9:30 PM ET
Denny Sanford Premier Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

16-16  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
0%
📊
FIGHTING HAWKS
100%
PIONEERS --
FIGHTING HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Denver)
PioneersDEN (-3.5) 0 Fighting HawksUND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pioneers Cover

78.8%

Fighting Hawks Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-7 points

25.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

26.2%

UND By 1-7 points

13.7%

UND By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
82
DENVER
74
NORTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
70
DENVER
75
NORTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pioneers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Hawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pioneers (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Fighting Hawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 DEN @ UND 67 - 83
Feb 7, 2026 DEN @ UND 98 - 79
Jan 24, 2026 UND @ DEN 93 - 86
Feb 13, 2025 DEN @ UND 68 - 64
Jan 9, 2025 UND @ DEN 95 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +13.3% more
Denver: 13.7 vs North Dakota: 11.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.5%
Denver: 38.0% vs North Dakota: 31.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.7%
Denver: 46.5% vs North Dakota: 40.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.5%
Denver: 78.7% vs North Dakota: 74.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 82.0 67
UND Score 74.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.5 / 38.0 39.0 / 29.0
Assists 11.9 / 13.7 14.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.0 / 1.7 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.8 / 46.5 49.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 74.2 / 78.7 61.0 / 66.0
Rebounding 30.2 / 31.3 35.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.6 / 5.0 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 7.4 8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
UND Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
17-11-1 (60.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
20-8-1
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.0
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UND
DEN
UND
DEN
ML
44% 15-19
56% 18-14
50% 17-17
59% 19-13
ATS
50% 17-17
66% 21-11
50% 17-17
59% 19-13
TTL
65% 22-12
59% 19-13
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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