VMI
KEYDETSVMI
6-25 | Road
70
UNC GREENSBORO
SPARTANSUNCG
13-18 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
KEYDETS
0%
SPARTANS
100%
KEYDETS
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
VMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (VMI)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VMI -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VMI)
VMI By 1-7 points
21.6%
VMI By 8-14 points
27.4%
UNCG By 1-7 points
9.3%
UNCG By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
VMI
73
VMI
UNC Greensboro
62
UNC GREENSBORO
Simulated Score
VMI
60
VMI
UNC Greensboro
75
UNC GREENSBORO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Keydets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Keydets (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Spartans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
VMI @ UNCG
70 - 84
Feb 11, 2026
VMI @ UNCG
71 - 92
Jan 21, 2026
UNCG @ VMI
85 - 78
Mar 8, 2025
VMI @ UNCG
64 - 57
Feb 12, 2025
VMI @ UNCG
54 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+10.6% more
VMI: 1.6
vs
UNC Greensboro: 1.4
Steals (L5)
+60.8% more
UNC Greensboro: 7.4
vs
VMI: 4.6
Turnovers (L5)
+45.0% more
UNC Greensboro: 9.5
vs
VMI: 6.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.6%
UNC Greensboro: 43.3%
vs
VMI: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VMI Score
73.0
70
UNCG Score
62.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.3 / 31.7
26.0 / 33.0
Assists
12.2 / 11.6
19.0 / 13.0
Blocks
1.4 / 1.6
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 39.8
50.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 71.6
100.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
32.0 / 31.9
40.0 / 29.0
Steals
7.4 / 4.6
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 6.5
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VMI
6-26-0
(18.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
UNCG
Advantage
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: -1.9
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VMI
9-20-0
(31.0%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
UNCG
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: -1.9
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
VMI
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.1
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3%
Total +/-: +7.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCG
VMI
UNCG
VMI
ML
38%
13-21
53%
17-15
71%
24-10
84%
27-5
ATS
44%
15-19
50%
16-16
71%
24-10
84%
27-5
TTL
76%
26-8
62%
20-12
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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