Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lancers @ Bulldogs LONG @ UNCA

LONGWOOD

LANCERSLONG

16-15  |  Road

82
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 6:00 PM ET
Freedom Hall (TN)
View Odds Details →

UNC ASHEVILLE

BULLDOGSUNCA

14-16  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
LANCERS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
LANCERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
LONGWOOD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Longwood)
LancersLONG (-3.5) 0 BulldogsUNCA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lancers Cover

86.4%

Bulldogs Cover

13.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LONG -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LONG)

LONG By 1-7 points

21.6%

LONG By 8-14 points

27.4%

UNCA By 1-7 points

9.3%

UNCA By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
70
LONGWOOD
59
UNC ASHEVILLE
Simulated Score
70
LONGWOOD
82
UNC ASHEVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lancers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lancers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 LONG @ UNCA 82 - 85
Feb 12, 2026 UNCA @ LONG 79 - 74
Jan 7, 2026 LONG @ UNCA 61 - 72
Feb 22, 2025 LONG @ UNCA 82 - 87
Jan 8, 2025 UNCA @ LONG 76 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +46.2% more
Longwood: 8.8 vs UNC Asheville: 4.7
Turnovers (L5) +28.1% more
Longwood: 13.8 vs UNC Asheville: 9.9
Assists (L5) +26.8% more
Longwood: 12.9 vs UNC Asheville: 9.5
Free Throw % (L5) +15.1%
Longwood: 75.4% vs UNC Asheville: 60.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LONG Score 70.0 82
UNCA Score 59.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.5 / 39.8 38.0 / 17.0
Assists 9.5 / 12.9 11.0 / 7.0
Blocks 4.2 / 1.5 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 44.9 46.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 60.3 / 75.4 68.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 39.0 30.0 / 47.0
Steals 4.7 / 8.8 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 13.8 13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LONG Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
UNCA
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LONG
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
UNCA Advantage
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.7
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCA
LONG
UNCA
LONG
ML
53% 16-14
65% 20-11
63% 19-11
68% 21-10
ATS
57% 17-13
68% 21-10
63% 19-11
68% 21-10
TTL
60% 18-12
65% 20-11
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
si 5 days, 13 hours ago
Kirby Smart Stays Silent on Nate Frazier's Injury Status as Geor…
si 1 week, 3 days ago
Tigers Lock Up Broadcast Duo Dan Dickerson and Jason Benetti wit…
yahoo 2 weeks ago
Georgia Bulldogs Set to Clash with Oklahoma Sooners as Heavy Fav…
si 2 weeks, 2 days ago
NC State's Stunning Collapse at Vanderbilt Joins List of Infamou…
yardbarker 2 weeks, 5 days ago