STETSON
HATTERSSTET
12-20 | Road
60
AUSTIN PEAY
GOVERNORSAPSU
21-8 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
HATTERS
100%
GOVERNORS
0%
HATTERS
--
GOVERNORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
AUSTIN PEAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Austin Peay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around APSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APSU)
STET By 1-7 points
21.6%
STET By 8-14 points
10.7%
APSU By 1-7 points
27.2%
APSU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Stetson
78
STETSON
Austin Peay
81
AUSTIN PEAY
Simulated Score
Stetson
71
STETSON
Austin Peay
76
AUSTIN PEAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Governors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Governors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Governors (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Governors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
STET @ APSU
60 - 69
Jan 23, 2026
STET @ APSU
65 - 73
Jan 10, 2026
APSU @ STET
81 - 69
Feb 15, 2025
STET @ APSU
63 - 76
Mar 10, 2024
APSU @ STET
91 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+17.3% more
Austin Peay: 6.8
vs
Stetson: 5.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.4%
Austin Peay: 75.2%
vs
Stetson: 70.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
Stetson: 45.3%
vs
Austin Peay: 38.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Stetson: 52.5%
vs
Austin Peay: 49.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STET Score
78.0
60
APSU Score
81.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 45.3
25.0 / 31.0
Assists
18.3 / 18.4
11.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.5 / 2.5
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.9 / 52.5
44.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
75.2 / 70.9
80.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
31.9 / 31.9
36.0 / 28.0
Steals
6.8 / 5.8
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 10.4
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STET
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.1
ATS +/-: +2.0
APSU
Advantage
22-9-0
(71.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STET
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: -6.1
ATS +/-: +2.0
APSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
STET
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APSU
STET
APSU
STET
ML
53%
16-14
55%
18-15
59%
16-11
73%
24-9
ATS
57%
17-13
64%
21-12
59%
16-11
73%
24-9
TTL
57%
17-13
61%
20-13
100%
27-0
100%
33-0
