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UIC

FLAMESUIC

17-14  |  Road

92
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 3:30 PM ET
Enterprise Center
View Odds Details →

MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

20-11  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
0%
📊
RACERS
100%
FLAMES --
RACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
FlamesUIC (-3.5) 0 RacersMUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

46.0%

Racers Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MUR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

UIC By 1-7 points

26.2%

UIC By 8-14 points

16.9%

MUR By 1-7 points

24.3%

MUR By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
76
UIC
75
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
73
UIC
82
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Flames Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Racers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Racers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Racers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 UIC @ MUR 92 - 79
Feb 3, 2026 UIC @ MUR 74 - 81
Jan 1, 2026 MUR @ UIC 81 - 77
Feb 11, 2025 UIC @ MUR 53 - 63
Jan 15, 2025 MUR @ UIC 93 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.6% more
UIC: 13.1 vs Murray State: 9.9
Steals (L5) +16.0% more
UIC: 7.8 vs Murray State: 6.5
Rebounding (L5) +10.2% more
UIC: 36.2 vs Murray State: 32.5
Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
UIC: 45.6% vs Murray State: 42.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UIC Score 76.0 92
MUR Score 75.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 30.1 27.0 / 31.0
Assists 13.1 / 14.1 13.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.1 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.2 / 45.6 36.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 74.0 / 70.1 68.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 32.5 / 36.2 32.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.5 / 7.8 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 13.1 7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UIC
--
MUR Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UIC
--
MUR Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UIC
--
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
UIC
MUR
UIC
ML
58% 19-14
57% 20-15
61% 20-13
44% 15-19
ATS
52% 17-16
54% 19-16
61% 20-13
44% 15-19
TTL
70% 23-10
60% 21-14
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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