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ORAL ROBERTS

GOLDEN EAGLESORU

10-22  |  Road

65
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Denny Sanford Premier Center
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NORTH DAKOTA STATE

BISONNDSU

24-7  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
📊
BISON
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
BISON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (North Dakota State)
Golden EaglesORU (-3.5) 0 BisonNDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

46.0%

Bison Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NDSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NDSU)

ORU By 1-7 points

24.3%

ORU By 8-14 points

13.7%

NDSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

NDSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
78
ORAL ROBERTS
79
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
72
ORAL ROBERTS
78
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bison Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bison Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bison (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Bison (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 ORU @ NDSU 65 - 76
Jan 24, 2026 NDSU @ ORU 86 - 58
Jan 3, 2026 ORU @ NDSU 77 - 79
Feb 13, 2025 ORU @ NDSU 88 - 94
Jan 9, 2025 NDSU @ ORU 110 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +38.2% more
North Dakota State: 18.6 vs Oral Roberts: 13.4
Free Throw % (L5) +4.5%
North Dakota State: 74.9% vs Oral Roberts: 70.4%
Rebounding (L5) +8.8% more
Oral Roberts: 40.4 vs North Dakota State: 36.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORU Score 78.0 65
NDSU Score 79.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.8 / 39.9 31.0 / 37.0
Assists 18.6 / 13.4 15.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.6 / 2.6 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 50.1 40.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 74.9 / 70.4 74.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 40.4 38.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.8 / 6.6 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 11.7 8.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORU
10-23-0 (30.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.1
NDSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORU
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.1
NDSU Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ORU
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NDSU
ORU
NDSU
ORU
ML
49% 17-18
85% 28-5
59% 20-14
73% 24-9
ATS
54% 19-16
82% 27-6
59% 20-14
73% 24-9
TTL
43% 15-20
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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