Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Red Wolves GASO @ ARST

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

EAGLESGASO

17-15  |  Road

80
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 8:30 PM ET
Pensacola Bay Center
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

RED WOLVESARST

20-11  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
RED WOLVES
0%
EAGLES --
RED WOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Arkansas State)
EaglesGASO (-3.5) 0 Red WolvesARST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

18.4%

Red Wolves Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARST -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

GASO By 1-7 points

12.2%

GASO By 8-14 points

4.0%

ARST By 1-7 points

24.3%

ARST By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
67
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
76
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
67
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
73
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Wolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Wolves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Wolves (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Red Wolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u166.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u166.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 GASO @ ARST 80 - 77
Jan 22, 2026 ARST @ GASO 85 - 68
Jan 4, 2024 GASO @ ARST 83 - 109
Feb 11, 2023 ARST @ GASO 53 - 68
Jan 1, 2022 GASO @ ARST 56 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +83.4% more
Arkansas State: 4.3 vs Georgia Southern: 2.4
Assists (L5) +73.4% more
Arkansas State: 16.4 vs Georgia Southern: 9.4
Turnovers (L5) +45.0% more
Arkansas State: 14.4 vs Georgia Southern: 9.9
Rebounding (L5) +41.2% more
Arkansas State: 44.4 vs Georgia Southern: 31.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 67.0 80
ARST Score 76.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 38.5 30.0 / 40.0
Assists 16.4 / 9.4 18.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.3 / 2.4 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 46.8 41.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 65.9 / 78.8 52.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 44.4 / 31.5 44.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.2 / 7.4 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 9.9 13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
15%MONEY85%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
ARST Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
ARST Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6% Total +/-: +2.6
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
GASO
ARST
GASO
ML
48% 15-16
56% 20-16
53% 16-14
58% 19-14
ATS
58% 18-13
64% 23-13
53% 16-14
58% 19-14
TTL
61% 19-12
61% 22-14
100% 30-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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