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SOUTH CAROLINA STATE

BULLDOGSSCST

8-21  |  Road

80
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 5:00 PM ET
McDougald-McLendon Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

EAGLESNCCU

12-16  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
BULLDOGS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (South Carolina State)
BulldogsSCST (-3.5) 0 EaglesNCCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

96.4%

Eagles Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SCST -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SCST)

SCST By 1-7 points

10.7%

SCST By 8-14 points

21.6%

NCCU By 1-7 points

2.7%

NCCU By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
83
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
65
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Simulated Score
68
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
72
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 SCST @ NCCU 80 - 64
Feb 18, 2026 NCCU @ SCST 72 - 85
Mar 14, 2025 NCCU @ SCST 67 - 88
Mar 6, 2025 NCCU @ SCST 71 - 87
Jan 25, 2025 SCST @ NCCU 77 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.4% more
South Carolina State: 3.5 vs North Carolina Central: 2.6
Turnovers (L5) +17.7% more
South Carolina State: 14.2 vs North Carolina Central: 11.7
Rebounding (L5) +10.8% more
South Carolina State: 28.9 vs North Carolina Central: 25.8
Free Throw % (L5) +3.8%
South Carolina State: 77.4% vs North Carolina Central: 73.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SCST Score 83.0 80
NCCU Score 65.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.1 / 30.2 25.0 / 45.0
Assists 12.3 / 11.2 5.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.5 6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 40.3 33.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 73.7 / 77.4 71.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 25.8 / 28.9 39.0 / 41.0
Steals 10.4 / 7.2 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 14.2 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SCST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
NCCU Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SCST
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
NCCU Advantage
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SCST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.6
NCCU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCCU
SCST
NCCU
SCST
ML
65% 20-11
61% 19-12
81% 22-5
74% 20-7
ATS
71% 22-9
68% 21-10
81% 22-5
74% 20-7
TTL
55% 17-14
52% 16-15
100% 27-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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