ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
GOLDEN LIONSUAPB
12-18 | Road
83
ALCORN STATE
BRAVESALCN
8-21 | Home
48
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN LIONS
0%
BRAVES
100%
GOLDEN LIONS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Arkansas-Pine Bluff)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UAPB -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UAPB)
UAPB By 1-7 points
26.8%
UAPB By 8-14 points
24.3%
ALCN By 1-7 points
16.9%
ALCN By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
74
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Alcorn State
68
ALCORN STATE
Simulated Score
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
70
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Alcorn State
75
ALCORN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Lions
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Golden Lions (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
UAPB @ ALCN
83 - 48
Feb 7, 2026
ALCN @ UAPB
77 - 84
Mar 8, 2025
ALCN @ UAPB
65 - 63
Feb 8, 2025
UAPB @ ALCN
60 - 79
Mar 9, 2024
UAPB @ ALCN
95 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+31.6% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 13.4
vs
Alcorn State: 9.1
Turnovers (L5)
+10.2% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 13.1
vs
Alcorn State: 11.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 32.0%
vs
Alcorn State: 27.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.4%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 45.3%
vs
Alcorn State: 41.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UAPB Score
74.0
83
ALCN Score
68.0
48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.7 / 32.0
13.0 / 25.0
Assists
9.1 / 13.4
8.0 / 21.0
Blocks
3.5 / 2.4
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.9 / 45.3
32.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
74.6 / 77.0
59.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
29.8 / 32.0
35.0 / 38.0
Steals
8.4 / 7.1
7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 13.1
17.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAPB
Advantage
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
ALCN
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -13.3
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAPB
13-16-1
(44.8%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
ALCN
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: -13.3
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
ALCN
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALCN
UAPB
ALCN
UAPB
ML
66%
21-11
74%
23-8
75%
18-6
73%
19-7
ATS
68%
21-10-1
73%
22-8-1
75%
18-6
73%
19-7
TTL
47%
15-17
68%
21-10
100%
24-0
100%
26-0
