HOWARD
BISONHOW
20-10 | Road
84
NORFOLK STATE
SPARTANSNORF
15-15 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
BISON
0%
SPARTANS
100%
BISON
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
HOWARD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Howard)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOW -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOW)
HOW By 1-7 points
5.8%
HOW By 8-14 points
15.3%
NORF By 1-7 points
1.1%
NORF By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Howard
89
HOWARD
Norfolk State
67
NORFOLK STATE
Simulated Score
Howard
68
HOWARD
Norfolk State
72
NORFOLK STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bison
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bison (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Spartans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
HOW @ NORF
84 - 76
Jan 31, 2026
NORF @ HOW
60 - 88
Mar 6, 2025
NORF @ HOW
81 - 69
Jan 25, 2025
HOW @ NORF
75 - 92
Mar 15, 2024
HOW @ NORF
80 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+40.8% more
Howard: 21.8
vs
Norfolk State: 12.9
Blocks (L5)
+30.2% more
Howard: 4.9
vs
Norfolk State: 3.4
Turnovers (L5)
+25.2% more
Howard: 13.6
vs
Norfolk State: 10.2
Steals (L5)
+22.8% more
Howard: 8.9
vs
Norfolk State: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOW Score
89.0
84
NORF Score
67.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 38.7
14.0 / 55.0
Assists
12.9 / 21.8
12.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.4 / 4.9
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 52.0
48.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 73.6
82.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
36.2 / 40.2
30.0 / 30.0
Steals
6.9 / 8.9
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 13.6
8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOW
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +4.9
NORF
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOW
Advantage
22-8-1
(73.3%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +4.9
NORF
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOW
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
NORF
19-9-0
O: 67.9% / U: 32.1%
Total +/-: +4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NORF
HOW
NORF
HOW
ML
67%
20-10
59%
20-14
71%
20-8
71%
22-9
ATS
63%
19-11
59%
20-14
72%
21-8
71%
22-9
TTL
60%
18-12
62%
21-13
100%
29-0
100%
31-0
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