Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Wizards UTAH @ WSH

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

18-44  |  Road

122
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

16-45  |  Home

112
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
📊
WIZARDS
0%
JAZZ --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Washington)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

21.2%

Wizards Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WSH -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

UTAH By 1-7 points

13.7%

UTAH By 8-14 points

4.8%

WSH By 1-7 points

25.3%

WSH By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
112
UTAH
120
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
109
UTAH
115
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wizards Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wizards (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u241.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Sim u241.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 25, 2026 WSH @ UTAH 133 - 110
Mar 5, 2026 UTAH @ WSH 122 - 112
Mar 19, 2025 WSH @ UTAH 112 - 128
Mar 5, 2025 UTAH @ WSH 122 - 125
Mar 4, 2024 WSH @ UTAH 115 - 127
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +20.0% more
Washington: 5.7 vs Utah: 4.7
Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Washington: 47.3% vs Utah: 43.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Washington: 35.5% vs Utah: 32.1%
Steals (L5) +24.6% more
Utah: 10.2 vs Washington: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 112.0 122
WSH Score 120.0 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 32.1 43.0 / 43.0
Assists 22.4 / 24.3 22.0 / 31.0
Blocks 5.7 / 4.7 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 43.8 47.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 74.0 / 83.9 69.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 39.6 43.0 / 45.0
Steals 7.7 / 10.2 8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 13.2 19.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH Advantage
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
UTAH
WSH
UTAH
ML
70% 112-49
60% 96-63
47% 39-44
48% 40-43
ATS
69% 111-49-1
68% 108-51
47% 39-44
48% 40-43
TTL
74% 119-41-1
75% 119-39-1
100% 83-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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