NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
19-44 | Road
133
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
14-49 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
KINGS
0%
PELICANS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
NO By 1-7 points
24.3%
NO By 8-14 points
13.7%
SAC By 1-7 points
26.2%
SAC By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
112
NEW ORLEANS
Sacramento
113
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
New Orleans
114
NEW ORLEANS
Sacramento
121
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Kings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Kings (+5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u235.0
Loss
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim
u235.0
Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
NO @ SAC
113 - 117
Mar 5, 2026
NO @ SAC
133 - 123
Feb 9, 2026
SAC @ NO
94 - 120
Feb 13, 2025
SAC @ NO
133 - 140
Feb 12, 2025
SAC @ NO
119 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+23.7% more
New Orleans: 5.7
vs
Sacramento: 4.3
Turnovers (L5)
+20.8% more
New Orleans: 17.6
vs
Sacramento: 14.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.3%
New Orleans: 32.7%
vs
Sacramento: 26.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
112.0
133
SAC Score
113.0
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.4 / 32.7
26.0 / 35.0
Assists
26.9 / 27.6
29.0 / 27.0
Blocks
4.3 / 5.7
3.0 / 11.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 45.3
51.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
82.4 / 83.0
65.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
44.4 / 44.5
42.0 / 52.0
Steals
9.1 / 9.1
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 17.6
7.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
NO
SAC
NO
ML
55%
55-45
62%
98-61
61%
50-32
58%
48-35
ATS
54%
52-45-3
68%
107-51-1
61%
50-32
58%
48-35
TTL
58%
57-42-1
75%
119-40
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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