DETROIT
PISTONSDET
45-15 | Road
106
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
44-17 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
SPURS
100%
PISTONS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
252.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-7 points
23.0%
DET By 8-14 points
27.2%
SA By 1-7 points
10.7%
SA By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
131
DETROIT
San Antonio
121
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Detroit
109
DETROIT
San Antonio
112
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pistons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pistons (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o228.0
Loss
Proj Total: 252.0
D
Sim
u228.0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
DET @ SA
106 - 121
Feb 23, 2026
SA @ DET
114 - 103
Mar 25, 2025
SA @ DET
96 - 122
Feb 21, 2025
DET @ SA
125 - 110
Apr 14, 2024
DET @ SA
95 - 123
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+15.1% more
Detroit: 11.0
vs
San Antonio: 9.3
Assists (L5)
+18.8% more
San Antonio: 32.0
vs
Detroit: 26.9
Turnovers (L5)
+9.7% more
San Antonio: 16.1
vs
Detroit: 14.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.4%
San Antonio: 37.0%
vs
Detroit: 28.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
131.0
106
SA Score
121.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 28.6
35.0 / 43.0
Assists
32.0 / 26.9
24.0 / 20.0
Blocks
7.3 / 7.1
11.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 48.1
50.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
77.0 / 75.8
80.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
47.1 / 50.3
46.0 / 44.0
Steals
9.3 / 11.0
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
16.1 / 14.7
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
DET
SA
DET
ML
60%
111-73
55%
64-53
58%
61-44
49%
47-49
ATS
58%
107-76-1
53%
60-54-3
58%
61-44
49%
47-49
TTL
74%
134-47-3
60%
70-46-1
100%
105-0
100%
96-0
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