DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
21-40 | Road
114
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
32-28 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
MAGIC
100%
MAVERICKS
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1-7 points
20.1%
DAL By 8-14 points
27.2%
ORL By 1-7 points
8.0%
ORL By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
126
DALLAS
Orlando
114
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Dallas
118
DALLAS
Orlando
112
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o229.5
Loss
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Sim
u229.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
ORL @ DAL
138 - 127
Mar 5, 2026
DAL @ ORL
114 - 115
Mar 27, 2025
DAL @ ORL
101 - 92
Nov 3, 2024
ORL @ DAL
85 - 108
Jan 29, 2024
ORL @ DAL
129 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+22.9% more
Dallas: 16.3
vs
Orlando: 12.6
Blocks (L5)
+70.0% more
Orlando: 5.3
vs
Dallas: 3.1
Assists (L5)
+24.7% more
Orlando: 26.9
vs
Dallas: 21.6
Steals (L5)
+12.3% more
Orlando: 6.9
vs
Dallas: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
126.0
114
ORL Score
114.0
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 26.3
33.0 / 44.0
Assists
26.9 / 21.6
31.0 / 28.0
Blocks
5.3 / 3.1
2.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 43.3
45.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
78.9 / 72.0
88.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
40.9 / 44.3
47.0 / 44.0
Steals
6.9 / 6.2
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 16.3
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
ORL
Advantage
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
DAL
ORL
DAL
ML
61%
65-42
62%
63-39
56%
51-40
54%
44-37
ATS
64%
68-38-1
67%
68-34
56%
51-40
54%
44-37
TTL
57%
61-46
59%
60-41-1
100%
91-0
100%
81-0
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