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OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

29-22-9  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 9:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Saddledome
View Odds Details →

CALGARY

FLAMESCGY

24-29-7  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Linus Ullmark
GOALTENDER

Linus Ullmark

#35 | Goaltender
@
Devin Cooley
GOALTENDER

Devin Cooley

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Linus Ullmark None-None 1.01 0.950 --
Devin Cooley None-None 2.05 0.943 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.01 Ldr GAA 2.05
0.950 Ldr Save % 0.943
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
100%
📊
FLAMES
0%
SENATORS --
FLAMES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CALGARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Calgary)
SenatorsOTT (-3.5) 0 FlamesCGY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Senators Cover

30.9%

Flames Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CGY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)

OTT By 1 goal

12.1%

OTT By 2-3 goals

9.3%

CGY By 1 goal

19.7%

CGY By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
OTTAWA
3
CALGARY
Simulated Score
3
OTTAWA
4
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flames Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flames Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flames (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Flames (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 OTT @ CGY 4 - 1
Oct 30, 2025 CGY @ OTT 3 - 4
Dec 19, 2024 OTT @ CGY 3 - 2
Nov 25, 2024 CGY @ OTT 3 - 4
Jan 9, 2024 OTT @ CGY 3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +11.8%
Calgary: 34.3% vs Ottawa: 22.5%
Takeaways (L5) +21.1% more
Ottawa: 5.7 vs Calgary: 4.5
Hits (L5) +18.3% more
Ottawa: 21.6 vs Calgary: 17.6
Faceoff % (L5) +6.6%
Ottawa: 51.5% vs Calgary: 44.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OTT Score 2.0 4
CGY Score 3.0 1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
82%MONEY18%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
OTT
CGY
OTT
ML
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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