Home / NHL Projections NHL / Lightning @ Jets TB @ WPG

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

38-17-4  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 8:00 PM ET
Canada Life Centre
View Odds Details →

WINNIPEG

JETSWPG

24-26-10  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
@
Connor Hellebuyck
GOALTENDER

Connor Hellebuyck

#37 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 3.06 0.897 --
Connor Hellebuyck None-None 1.00 0.963 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.06 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.897 Save % Ldr 0.963
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
📊
JETS
100%
LIGHTNING --
JETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
WINNIPEG
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 JetsWPG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Jets Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WPG +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WPG)

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

WPG By 1 goal

12.1%

WPG By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TAMPA BAY
2
WINNIPEG
Simulated Score
2
TAMPA BAY
3
WINNIPEG
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lightning Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jets Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jets (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Jets (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 TB @ WPG 1 - 4
Jan 29, 2026 WPG @ TB 1 - 4
Nov 14, 2024 WPG @ TB 1 - 4
Nov 3, 2024 TB @ WPG 4 - 7
Jan 2, 2024 TB @ WPG 2 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +14.1% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Winnipeg: 28.6
Power Play % (L5) +13.9%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Winnipeg: 17.6%
Faceoff % (L5) +2.4%
Tampa Bay: 49.8% vs Winnipeg: 47.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.0 1
WPG Score 2.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
78%MONEY22%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WPG
TB
WPG
TB
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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