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JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

18-14  |  Road

80
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 6:00 PM ET
Pensacola Bay Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

16-15  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
0%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
DUKES --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (James Madison)
DukesJMU (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dukes Cover

95.5%

Golden Eagles Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around JMU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

JMU By 1-7 points

12.2%

JMU By 8-14 points

23.0%

USM By 1-7 points

3.3%

USM By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
86
JAMES MADISON
69
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
67
JAMES MADISON
78
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dukes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dukes (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 JMU @ USM 80 - 86
Jan 31, 2026 JMU @ USM 65 - 73
Jan 6, 2024 JMU @ USM 71 - 81
Jan 21, 2023 JMU @ USM 70 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
James Madison: 50.8% vs Southern Miss: 46.9%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.0%
James Madison: 73.6% vs Southern Miss: 70.5%
Blocks (L5) +54.6% more
Southern Miss: 4.5 vs James Madison: 2.9
Steals (L5) +43.8% more
Southern Miss: 7.5 vs James Madison: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 86.0 80
USM Score 69.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 31.0 36.0 / 25.0
Assists 13.6 / 11.4 10.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.5 / 2.9 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 50.8 45.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 73.6 82.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 39.4 / 38.4 36.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.5 / 5.2 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 12.5 6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
USM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
USM Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
JMU
USM
JMU
ML
53% 18-16
64% 21-12
73% 24-9
66% 21-11
ATS
59% 20-14
67% 22-11
74% 25-9
66% 21-11
TTL
68% 23-11
67% 22-11
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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