Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Highlanders @ Rainbow Warriors UCR @ HAW

UC RIVERSIDE

HIGHLANDERSUCR

10-21  |  Road

74
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 11:59 PM ET
Stan Sheriff Center
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

RAINBOW WARRIORSHAW

21-7  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
100%
📊
RAINBOW WARRIORS
0%
HIGHLANDERS --
RAINBOW WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Hawai'i)
HighlandersUCR (-3.5) 0 Rainbow WarriorsHAW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Highlanders Cover

46.0%

Rainbow Warriors Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HAW -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

UCR By 1-7 points

24.3%

UCR By 8-14 points

13.7%

HAW By 1-7 points

26.2%

HAW By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
79
UC RIVERSIDE
80
HAWAI'I
Simulated Score
68
UC RIVERSIDE
73
HAWAI'I
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rainbow Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rainbow Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rainbow Warriors (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Rainbow Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.0 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u149.0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 UCR @ HAW 74 - 93
Jan 1, 2026 HAW @ UCR 88 - 45
Feb 27, 2025 UCR @ HAW 82 - 76
Jan 9, 2025 HAW @ UCR 83 - 76
Mar 2, 2024 HAW @ UCR 76 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.6% more
Hawai'i: 13.2 vs UC Riverside: 10.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Hawai'i: 34.0% vs UC Riverside: 27.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Hawai'i: 45.7% vs UC Riverside: 41.9%
Blocks (L5) +17.7% more
UC Riverside: 4.8 vs Hawai'i: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCR Score 79.0 74
HAW Score 80.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 27.9 40.0 / 39.0
Assists 13.3 / 14.5 12.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.0 / 4.8 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 41.9 61.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 78.3 / 79.4 77.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 38.5 35.0 / 25.0
Steals 6.3 / 6.5 6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 10.6 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCR
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
HAW Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCR Advantage
14-14-2 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
HAW
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.3
HAW
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
UCR
HAW
UCR
ML
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
68% 21-10
75% 24-8
ATS
67% 22-11
59% 19-13
68% 21-10
75% 24-8
TTL
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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