Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Toreros @ Lions USD @ LMU

SAN DIEGO

TOREROSUSD

11-20  |  Road

66
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 11:30 PM ET
Orleans Arena
View Odds Details →

LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

LIONSLMU

15-16  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
TOREROS
100%
📊
LIONS
0%
TOREROS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Loyola Marymount)
TorerosUSD (-3.5) 0 LionsLMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Toreros Cover

27.4%

Lions Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LMU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LMU)

USD By 1-7 points

16.9%

USD By 8-14 points

6.8%

LMU By 1-7 points

26.8%

LMU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
68
SAN DIEGO
74
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Simulated Score
67
SAN DIEGO
76
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 USD @ LMU 66 - 62
Feb 21, 2026 LMU @ USD 77 - 65
Feb 7, 2026 USD @ LMU 63 - 83
Mar 7, 2025 USD @ LMU 74 - 100
Feb 1, 2025 LMU @ USD 78 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +157.0% more
Loyola Marymount: 2.5 vs San Diego: 0.9
Rebounding (L5) +10.2% more
Loyola Marymount: 30.2 vs San Diego: 27.4
Free Throw % (L5) +9.5%
Loyola Marymount: 77.2% vs San Diego: 67.7%
Assists (L5) +36.7% more
San Diego: 19.5 vs Loyola Marymount: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USD Score 68.0 66
LMU Score 74.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.4 / 40.3 25.0 / 31.0
Assists 12.3 / 19.5 9.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.5 / 0.9 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 47.7 43.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 67.7 57.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 30.2 / 27.4 32.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.6 / 7.0 6.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 12.0 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USD
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
LMU Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USD Advantage
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
LMU
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: +0.5
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LMU
USD
LMU
USD
ML
53% 17-15
58% 19-14
50% 16-16
70% 23-10
ATS
47% 15-17
55% 18-15
50% 16-16
70% 23-10
TTL
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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