Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Lancers ACU @ CBU

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

WILDCATSACU

13-16  |  Road

48
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 10:00 PM ET
Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA BAPTIST

LANCERSCBU

21-8  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
LANCERS
0%
WILDCATS --
LANCERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (California Baptist)
WildcatsACU (-3.5) 0 LancersCBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

27.4%

Lancers Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CBU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CBU)

ACU By 1-7 points

16.9%

ACU By 8-14 points

6.8%

CBU By 1-7 points

26.8%

CBU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
74
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
80
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Simulated Score
68
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
73
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lancers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lancers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lancers (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Lancers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o137.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 ACU @ CBU 48 - 87
Feb 7, 2026 ACU @ CBU 63 - 65
Jan 15, 2026 CBU @ ACU 74 - 58
Jan 30, 2025 ACU @ CBU 60 - 83
Jan 18, 2025 CBU @ ACU 60 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +64.1% more
California Baptist: 2.8 vs Abilene Christian: 1.7
Rebounding (L5) +23.6% more
California Baptist: 37.7 vs Abilene Christian: 30.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
California Baptist: 35.9% vs Abilene Christian: 30.8%
Steals (L5) +62.6% more
Abilene Christian: 11.2 vs California Baptist: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ACU Score 74.0 48
CBU Score 80.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 30.8 47.0 / 27.0
Assists 8.9 / 13.1 11.0 / 5.0
Blocks 2.8 / 1.7 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 39.7 / 43.3 58.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 75.7 / 77.5 55.0 / 53.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 30.5 38.0 / 27.0
Steals 4.2 / 11.2 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 14.5 14.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ACU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
CBU Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ACU
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
CBU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +1.4
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CBU
ACU
CBU
ACU
ML
50% 17-17
67% 22-11
76% 25-8
70% 23-10
ATS
53% 18-16
55% 18-15
76% 25-8
70% 23-10
TTL
47% 16-18
58% 19-14
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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