UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
21-9 | Road
71
CAL STATE FULLERTON
TITANSCSUF
15-15 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
TRITONS
0%
TITANS
100%
TRITONS
--
TITANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (UC San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCSD -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)
UCSD By 1-7 points
20.1%
UCSD By 8-14 points
27.2%
CSUF By 1-7 points
8.0%
CSUF By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
UC San Diego
90
UC SAN DIEGO
Cal State Fullerton
78
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Simulated Score
UC San Diego
68
UC SAN DIEGO
Cal State Fullerton
72
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tritons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Titans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tritons (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Titans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o156.5
Loss
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
UCSD @ CSUF
71 - 75
Jan 8, 2026
CSUF @ UCSD
88 - 71
Mar 1, 2025
CSUF @ UCSD
55 - 100
Jan 4, 2025
UCSD @ CSUF
90 - 51
Feb 17, 2024
CSUF @ UCSD
69 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.0% more
UC San Diego: 8.4
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 6.0
Rebounding (L5)
+12.6% more
UC San Diego: 37.8
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 33.0
Assists (L5)
+8.6% more
Cal State Fullerton: 17.8
vs
UC San Diego: 16.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.8%
Cal State Fullerton: 40.4%
vs
UC San Diego: 33.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSD Score
90.0
71
CSUF Score
78.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.4 / 33.7
31.0 / 33.0
Assists
17.8 / 16.4
23.0 / 24.0
Blocks
2.8 / 3.0
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 46.1
43.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
71.9 / 69.0
67.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
33.0 / 37.8
35.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.0 / 8.4
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 10.1
9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
CSUF
18-16-0
(52.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSD
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
CSUF
Advantage
19-11-2
(63.3%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
CSUF
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUF
UCSD
CSUF
UCSD
ML
68%
23-11
56%
19-15
76%
26-8
65%
22-12
ATS
68%
23-11
50%
17-17
76%
26-8
65%
22-12
TTL
59%
20-14
62%
21-13
100%
34-0
100%
34-0
