Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Gamecocks @ Aggies JXST @ NMSU

JACKSONVILLE STATE

GAMECOCKSJXST

14-15  |  Road

75
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 9:00 PM ET
Pan American Center
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

13-15  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
GAMECOCKS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
GAMECOCKS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (New Mexico State)
GamecocksJXST (-3.5) 0 AggiesNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gamecocks Cover

3.6%

Aggies Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NMSU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

JXST By 1-7 points

2.7%

JXST By 8-14 points

0.5%

NMSU By 1-7 points

10.7%

NMSU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
79
JACKSONVILLE STATE
97
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
68
JACKSONVILLE STATE
72
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Win
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 NMSU @ JXST 68 - 63
Mar 5, 2026 JXST @ NMSU 75 - 77
Feb 14, 2026 NMSU @ JXST 79 - 70
Feb 20, 2025 NMSU @ JXST 61 - 52
Jan 25, 2025 JXST @ NMSU 65 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +88.3% more
New Mexico State: 3.4 vs Jacksonville State: 1.8
Rebounding (L5) +17.3% more
New Mexico State: 37.8 vs Jacksonville State: 32.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.7%
Jacksonville State: 41.8% vs New Mexico State: 28.1%
Assists (L5) +8.7% more
Jacksonville State: 13.8 vs New Mexico State: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JXST Score 79.0 75
NMSU Score 97.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.1 / 41.8 27.0 / 24.0
Assists 12.6 / 13.8 11.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.4 / 1.8 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 46.7 39.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 75.9 / 75.5 66.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 32.2 43.0 / 55.0
Steals 5.6 / 5.3 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 8.5 9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JXST
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: -0.1
NMSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JXST
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: -0.1
NMSU Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
JXST
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +0.4
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
JXST
NMSU
JXST
ML
61% 19-12
50% 16-16
67% 20-10
55% 17-14
ATS
65% 20-11
62% 20-12
67% 20-10
55% 17-14
TTL
45% 14-17
62% 20-12
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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