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UC DAVIS

AGGIESUCD

17-12  |  Road

76
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 10:00 PM ET
Walter Pyramid
View Odds Details →

LONG BEACH STATE

BEACHLBSU

9-21  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
BEACH
0%
AGGIES --
BEACH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LONG BEACH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Long Beach State)
AggiesUCD (-3.5) 0 BeachLBSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

42.1%

Beach Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LBSU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LBSU)

UCD By 1-7 points

23.0%

UCD By 8-14 points

12.2%

LBSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

LBSU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
67
UC DAVIS
69
LONG BEACH STATE
Simulated Score
70
UC DAVIS
72
LONG BEACH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Beach Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Beach Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Beach (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Beach (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 UCD @ LBSU 76 - 70
Feb 14, 2026 LBSU @ UCD 54 - 71
Feb 6, 2025 UCD @ LBSU 73 - 65
Jan 11, 2025 LBSU @ UCD 84 - 73
Mar 16, 2024 LBSU @ UCD 74 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +62.1% more
Long Beach State: 3.9 vs UC Davis: 2.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.3%
Long Beach State: 39.6% vs UC Davis: 31.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Long Beach State: 49.1% vs UC Davis: 43.7%
Steals (L5) +21.2% more
UC Davis: 7.3 vs Long Beach State: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCD Score 67.0 76
LBSU Score 69.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.6 / 31.3 30.0 / 24.0
Assists 13.2 / 13.9 9.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.9 / 2.4 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 43.7 41.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 75.0 / 75.7 50.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 33.1 / 31.1 43.0 / 42.0
Steals 5.7 / 7.3 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 13.0 15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
LBSU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
LBSU Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.6
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5% Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LBSU
UCD
LBSU
UCD
ML
55% 17-14
58% 19-14
65% 20-11
64% 21-12
ATS
68% 21-10
61% 20-13
65% 20-11
64% 21-12
TTL
61% 19-12
61% 20-13
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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