CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
MATADORSCSUN
18-12 | Road
86
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
8-22 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
MATADORS
100%
ROADRUNNERS
0%
MATADORS
--
ROADRUNNERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cal State Bakersfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSUB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUB)
CSUN By 1-7 points
24.3%
CSUN By 8-14 points
13.7%
CSUB By 1-7 points
26.2%
CSUB By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Northridge
77
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Cal State Bakersfield
78
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Simulated Score
Cal State Northridge
63
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Cal State Bakersfield
70
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Roadrunners
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Roadrunners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Roadrunners (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Roadrunners (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u165.5
Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
u165.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
CSUN @ CSUB
86 - 84
Dec 4, 2025
CSUB @ CSUN
66 - 87
Feb 1, 2025
CSUB @ CSUN
62 - 88
Jan 11, 2025
CSUN @ CSUB
90 - 94
Feb 15, 2024
CSUN @ CSUB
76 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+43.4% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 8.3
vs
Cal State Northridge: 5.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.8%
Cal State Bakersfield: 74.7%
vs
Cal State Northridge: 64.9%
Rebounding (L5)
+25.8% more
Cal State Northridge: 41.3
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 30.6
Assists (L5)
+21.2% more
Cal State Northridge: 14.6
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUN Score
77.0
86
CSUB Score
78.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
23.8 / 26.8
33.0 / 22.0
Assists
11.5 / 14.6
17.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.9 / 3.3
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 45.0
45.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
74.7 / 64.9
64.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
30.6 / 41.3
34.0 / 50.0
Steals
8.3 / 5.8
13.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 11.9
10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUN
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
CSUB
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUN
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +2.4
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUB
CSUN
CSUB
CSUN
ML
55%
17-14
58%
19-14
71%
22-9
67%
22-11
ATS
61%
19-12
58%
19-14
71%
22-9
67%
22-11
TTL
58%
18-13
58%
19-14
100%
31-0
100%
33-0