Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Waves @ Pilots PEPP @ PORT

PEPPERDINE

WAVESPEPP

9-22  |  Road

68
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 9:00 PM ET
Orleans Arena
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

13-18  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
WAVES
100%
📊
PILOTS
0%
WAVES --
PILOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Portland)
WavesPEPP (-3.5) 0 PilotsPORT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Waves Cover

9.7%

Pilots Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PORT -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PORT)

PEPP By 1-7 points

6.8%

PEPP By 8-14 points

1.7%

PORT By 1-7 points

18.6%

PORT By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
69
PEPPERDINE
82
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
75
PEPPERDINE
78
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pilots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pilots Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pilots (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Pilots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 PEPP @ PORT 68 - 77
Feb 18, 2026 PEPP @ PORT 95 - 87
Jan 14, 2026 PORT @ PEPP 63 - 67
Mar 7, 2025 PEPP @ PORT 86 - 73
Feb 27, 2025 PEPP @ PORT 67 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +9.8% more
Portland: 13.9 vs Pepperdine: 12.6
Blocks (L5) +57.0% more
Pepperdine: 4.2 vs Portland: 1.8
Rebounding (L5) +19.2% more
Pepperdine: 36.7 vs Portland: 29.6
Assists (L5) +11.0% more
Pepperdine: 17.1 vs Portland: 15.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PEPP Score 69.0 68
PORT Score 82.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.1 / 36.4 41.0 / 29.0
Assists 15.2 / 17.1 23.0 / 16.0
Blocks 1.8 / 4.2 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 45.7 49.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 79.6 / 79.5 57.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 29.6 / 36.7 41.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.7 / 7.4 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 12.6 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PEPP
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
PORT Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PEPP
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
PORT Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.4
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PORT
PEPP
PORT
PEPP
ML
48% 16-17
62% 20-12
82% 27-6
69% 22-10
ATS
67% 22-11
56% 18-14
82% 28-6
69% 22-10
TTL
55% 18-15
50% 16-16
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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